Author: Roger Gros

People who bet on—or trade in—the outcomes of sporting events are gambling and need safeguards to reduce the risk of developing problems. These responsible gambling policies work, and they benefit all stakeholders: players, operators, regulators, and governments.

Recent AGA survey data shows that 85 percent of Americans view wagering on a game’s outcome or a player’s performance as gambling. And it is clear that sports prediction market customers face the same risks as sportsbook customers. Therefore, prediction market companies should adopt the responsible gambling standards that the regulated gambling industry has spent decades developing. The same logic applies to daily fantasy sports, social casinos, and sweepstakes operators.

Why Sports Prediction Markets Are High Risk

Prediction markets share many of the same risk factors as gambling—and in some cases, amplify them:

• Youth access: To date, all prediction markets are open to users 18 and older. Most states set the minimum age for sports betting at 21.
• Few consumer protection features: While Kalshi deserves credit for introducing some protections, most platforms lack the standard tools used in gambling.
• Perception gap: Many users don’t view prediction markets as gambling, making them less likely to set limits or recognize when play is becoming problematic.
• Incentives for frequent trading: Platforms profit from transaction fees, which can encourage frequent and excessive trading.

These dynamics heighten risk, particularly for younger or inexperienced users. And the harm is not hypothetical. In 2021, NCPG’s NGAGE 2.0 survey of 2,000 adults found that gamblers who traded weekly or more often were twice as likely to report problematic gambling behaviors as other gamblers.

In my 30 years working on gambling issues, I’ve seen firsthand the fallout when responsible gambling is ignored: people lose money, relationships, and health; the public loses trust; legislators and regulators respond. I’ve also seen the benefits when protections are embraced: safer play, healthier customers, stronger reputations, and more sustainable operations. Gambling and trading companies that invest in tools like self-exclusion, time and spending limits, and behavioral monitoring not only protect players but also protect themselves.

A Better Model Already Exists

The gambling industry is not perfect, but it has made real progress. Over the past 30 years, operators, regulators, and advocates have built a robust toolbox of safeguards: self-exclusion, timeouts, deposit limits, affordability checks, and real-time behavioral monitoring. These tools work now and are constantly being improved.

If a state or tribe allowed gambling companies to offer contracts on sporting events or player performance, they would bring this experience and these protections with them. But the question remains: why should consumers predicting the outcome of a game receive fewer protections than those placing a sports bet on the same game?

Practical Steps Forward

Prediction market platforms offering sports contracts should:

1. Adopt the NCPG Internet Responsible Gambling Standards (IRGS). Developed over a decade and adopted by the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, these standards include essential tools like deposit limits, timeouts, and self-exclusion.
2. Raise the minimum age to 21. This is the standard across most regulated gambling and should apply equally to prediction markets.
3. Geofence their platforms. States and tribes that do not allow betting on sports should be able to protect their citizens accordingly.
4. Build an informed customer base. Educate users about risks, including transaction fees, the role of market makers, and how incentives may influence trading behavior.
5. Provide support to organizations who prevent and treat gambling problems.

Any gambling company offering trading services, especially sports event markets, should follow the same approach.

Call for Consumer Protection

The gambling industry is investing heavily in safer gambling technology—tools that monitor play, screen payments, flag risky patterns, and give consumers more control. States are also directing more gambling tax revenue than ever towards prevention, education, treatment, enforcement, responsible gambling, research, and recovery services.

Prediction market operators, however, haven’t adopted these tools, don’t pay gambling taxes and don’t contribute to these programs.

It may take years for all the legal disputes around prediction markets to play out. But it’s both common sense and the view of the public that trading on outcomes of sporting events is the same behavior, with the same risks and rewards, as betting on outcomes of sporting events. The lessons from the legalized gambling industry are clear: ignoring harm leads to backlash, while adopting protections leads to sustainability. It’s time to bring comprehensive responsible gambling protections to prediction markets.

Keith Whyte is president of Safer Gambling Strategies LLC and has 30 years of national leadership in promoting responsible gambling and preventing gambling addiction. His previous experience includes the National Council on Problem Gambling and American Gaming Association. He is also pursuing a PhD in responsible gambling.

Across the world, gambling operators are under increasing pressure to demonstrate that they are protecting their customers from harm. Regulators are moving to tighten consumer protection frameworks, advocacy groups are calling for stronger interventions, and the public is seeing gambling problems emerge within their communities.

But amidst this pressure lies an opportunity. Rather than seeing responsible gambling as a compliance burden, operators can embrace it to strengthen customer relationships, build trust, and demonstrate leadership. The future of sustainable gambling depends on industry’s ability to support customers not only in enjoying their play, but also in managing it safely.

Why Affordability Matters

One of the most pressing issues is sustainable spend. Gambling can create significant financial stress, but most people are poor at monitoring how much they spend. Research, including from my team, consistently shows that gambling customers underestimate their losses—often by a large margin. Those who gamble more frequently or at higher intensity are the least accurate.

This matters because if customers are not fully aware of what they are spending, they cannot make truly informed decisions about their play. Affordability is not just about imposing limits; it is about giving customers the tools and information they need to reflect on their gambling in the context of their own financial situation.

The Psychology of Overspending

From a psychological perspective, overspending in gambling is not surprising. People are prone to optimism bias, focusing on the possibility of a win rather than the likelihood of a loss. Many underestimate small, repeated expenditures, or struggle to recall losses accurately when play is fast-paced and fragmented across platforms.

This means that traditional approaches—such as simply reminding players to “gamble responsibly”—are unlikely to be effective. Messages need to be paired with tools and features that make spending visible, meaningful, and easy to interpret. Customers are more likely to engage with interventions when these are designed with human behaviour and their own personal context in mind.

Supporting Customer Awareness

Operators can take proactive steps to help customers increase their awareness of spend. This can be framed positively as a form of customer service rather than a restriction. Our Australian research shows that clear, personalised feedback about gambling activity is highly valued by most consumers.

For example, spend summaries presented in simple, visual formats can be more impactful than raw figures alone. Encouraging customers to reflect on what they planned to spend versus what they actually spent can spark important moments of self-awareness. Interactive features—such as goal setting or quizzes—can make these insights more engaging and less confrontational.

The key is to present these tools as standard parts of the customer experience, not as optional extras only for people with “problems.” When features are normalised and seamlessly integrated, uptake is higher, and stigma is reduced.

The Business Case for Action

Proactive investment in sustainable gambling measures is not just about avoiding regulatory penalties. It is a business strategy. Customers who feel supported are more likely to view operators as trustworthy and to sustain long-term relationships. Transparent tools that help players manage their spend can reduce the likelihood of disputes, complaints, or reputational damage.

In competitive markets, operators who position themselves as leaders in safer gambling can differentiate their brand. Regulators, too, increasingly reward those who demonstrate a genuine commitment to consumer protection. Acting now can future-proof businesses against more restrictive mandates down the track.

The Role of Evaluation

While there are many promising approaches, not all interventions are equally effective. That is why evaluation is essential. It is not enough to roll out a feature and assume it is working. Operators should be testing, measuring, and refining tools to ensure they deliver meaningful benefits.

Evaluation can take many forms: controlled trials, customer surveys, behavioural data analysis. What matters is that operators commit to evidence-based decision making, collaborating with independent researchers and committing to being transparent and publishing the results. By sharing insights and collaborating with researchers, the industry can build a stronger evidence base that benefits everyone.

Principles for Action

Based on the growing body of research and international experience, several principles can guide operators in strengthening responsible gambling strategies:

1. Make spending visible. Provide customers with clear, accessible summaries of their gambling activity, ideally in formats that are easy to understand at a glance.
2. Encourage reflection. Create prompts for customers to think about how their actual spending compares to their intentions or their personal budget.
3. Normalise tools use. Embed sustainable gambling features into the mainstream customer experience so they are not seen as optional or stigmatised.
4. Design for engagement. Use behavioural science principles—making tools easy, attractive, timely, and relevant—to increase uptake.
5. Evaluate and adapt. Test the effectiveness of interventions, refine them based on evidence, and share findings to inform industry-wide best practice.
6. Work with researchers, regulators, and consumer groups to co-design solutions that are effective and credible.

Looking Ahead

The gambling field stands at a crossroads. The regulatory environment is evolving quickly, and public expectations are high. Yet this is also a moment of opportunity. By embracing evidence-based strategies and focusing on affordability and spend awareness, operators can demonstrate leadership and build stronger, more sustainable businesses.

The message to industry and regulators is simple: responsible gambling is not only about compliance—it is about customer care. Helping customers to understand and manage their spend should be seen as a core service, just like providing fair odds or reliable payouts.

Through collaboration, innovation, and evaluation, we can move towards a gambling environment that is both enjoyable and safe, balancing consumer protection with industry sustainability. The future of gambling will be built not on short-term wins, but on long-term trust.

To learn more about the research conducted by the University of Sydney’s Gambling Treatment and Research Clinic, please contact Dr. Sally Gainsbury and visit their website: https://www.sydney.edu.au/brain-mind/our-research/research-groups-and-networks/gambling.html